Long-term betting

Long-term betting, as the name itself declares, are those bets that the outcome of which will be defined at a time more or less distant from the day on which the bet was made.

If, for example, one bets on which team will win the Italian A Series football championship, they are making a long-term bet, just like when one bets on who will win the next Wimbledon tennis tournament or the Spanish football championship, etc.

In general, one who does trading with betting does not deal with the long-term betting market, in that they try to immobilise a certain capital for a rather long period of time, lowering the capital’s rotation rate, but prefers, rather, to make bets that will conclude within the arc of 2-3 days, in order to gain the capital invested increased by the earnings of that bet.

In this short article we will to explain the advantages of long-term betting, giving particular attention to the fact that:

  1. They may have very interesting percentage yields
  2. They require less hours of dedication, especially useful for the person with little time to devote to trading
  3. We will also try to explain how the capital to be invested, which will remain immobile, is much less than what you might think.

First of all, an obligatory clarification: purchasing a quota at an elevated price from a bookmaker and «laying» it at a lower price makes secure long-term bets. It is therefore essential to have a good understanding of the “back and lay” mechanism!

Having said that, let’s say that in the long-term betting market we find at bookmaker XXX at a quota of 6 the Milan team winning the Italian football championship and we find the lay at a quota of 5 at an exchange site (from this point on called “betfair” which it is more commonly called).

Considering a commission of 5% we can calculate – also using back and lay calculation sheet from the Utility sections – both the yield of the bet of our exposition on betfair, as well as the total investment.

Let’s suppose that we bet €100 on Milan winning the Italian A Series football championship at a quota of 6 and lay it with the standard commission of 5% at a quota of 5:

We’ll have:

Betfair exposition: € 484,85
Bet earnings: € 15,15
Total investment: 484,85+100 = € 584,85
Bet % yield: 2,59%

At this point many will ask themselves: “well, keeping almost €600 immobilised for 2-4 months to then have a percentage return of only 2.59% is not a good investment…

Ok, true, but this is true if you only bet on that championship…but let’s continue with the reasoning…

In that same championship there is another team, Roma, for example, which is quoted by a bookmaker at a quota of 4 while the lay on betfair is quoted at 3.6. Let’s place €150 and sell it on betfair.

If this had been the only bet, we would have had:

Betfair exposition: € 439,44
Bet earnings: € 10,56
Total investment: 439,44+150 = € 589,44
Bet % yield: 1,79%

Really, our exchange site (betfair) will not be more than €439.44, in that with the prior bet was already €484.85…but rather…it will free up the sum that we will bank (a little more than €150.00 - €169.01 to be precise). This because we will bank (lay) events independent of each other. Either Milan or Roma or another team will win the A Series football championship.

Therefore this will be our investment situation:

Betfair exposition: € 318,22
Bet earnings: € 25,71
Total investment: 318,22+100+150 = € 568,22
Bet % yield: 4,52%

Basically with the second bet, we lowered the investment total (from €584.85 to €568.22) and increased the yield percentage.

Let’s say we make another bet on that same championship and bet a €150 on Juventus - quoted by a bookmaker at a quota of 4, and lay it at a quota of 3.6.

 

That will get us:

Betfair exposition: € 149,21
Bet earnings: € 36,27
Total investment: 149,21+100+150 +150 = € 549,21
Bet % yield: 6,60%

Basically, it’s like we bet without using any more money, in that it is credited to the same account of our exchange site.

Another long-term example on the same championship with a bet at a very high quota would be Palermo at a quota of 12 with a lay at a quota of 8.2. This time we only bet €50 on Palermo to take advantage of the exposition that we had on betfair with the previous bets. The yield of this bet would have been 3.44% with an exposition of €530.06 on betfair, we would then have a total situation such as:

Betfair exposition: € 75,60
Bet earnings: € 56,21
Total investment: 75,60+100+150+150+50 = € 525,60
Bet % yield: 10,69%

It’s not hard to find long-term bets on the market with a 4-5-6% yield, besides that quotas of the various teams vary a lot, even after just a few weeks or days.

The reasoning made here, with a very low yield percentage (2-3%) is therefore even more emphasized if carried out at a higher percentage and with a larger number of bets.

Obviously, you need to have cash to be able to bet with other bookmakers, in that there, those amounts will basically be held until the end of the championship.